Legalization: The Marijuana Number That Was Too Good to Check

This article starts by focusing on - and headlining - the apparently erroneous estimate from the Office of National Drug Control Policy (the White House "drug czar") made in 2006, that 60% of Mexican drug cartel profits come from selling marijuana. The article then reports the revision of this estimate made by the Rand Corporation in a report released this past week. However, what may happen in California with Prop 19 leads the Time magazine writer to point to a conclusion quite different from that of Rand.

The Marijuana Number That Was Too Good to Check – TIME Healthland: "According to its own analysis of drug smuggling across the U.S.–Mexico border, Rand researchers estimate that marijuana accounts for 15% to 26% of illegal drug revenue in Mexico, and say the 60% figure (cited by many) "should not be taken seriously."

Given that California makes up an estimated 14% of the U.S. marijuana market overall, legalizing the drug in that state would have minimal impact on Mexican drug profits or violence, cutting drug export revenue by perhaps 2% to 4%. (The Rand study then concludes,) "Legalizing marijuana in California would not appreciably influence the Mexican drug trafficking organizations and the related violence unless exports from California drive Mexican marijuana out of the market in other states." 


What that (the Rand study) leaves out, of course, is the impact legalization in California may have on the rest of the U.S. If California legalizes marijuana, other states may follow suit and U.S. drug policy could change dramatically." Oct. 12, 2010