An Analysis of the Whack-a-mole drug war: Mexican government’s quest to wipe out drug cartels only spurs more violence

Goodspeed Analysis: Mexican government’s quest to wipe out drug cartels only spurs more violence | Posted | National Post: "With 12,456 drug war-related deaths this year alone, the four-year toll reached 30,197 (as of November). The unrelenting violence now threatens to undermine Mr. Calderon’s war on drugs and his presidency, as it frightens off foreign tourists and drives away foreign investment.

“If the killings continue to increase at the current rate, that total will rise to about 75,000 by the time the government’s term in office ends in December 2012,” said Eduardo Guerrero Gutierrez, a political scientist and security consultant.

In a study for the North American Forum, an annual meeting of government and business representatives from Canada, the United States and Mexico, he says the drug war has splintered the cartels and increased the number of criminal gangs operating in Mexico.

It has also spurred higher levels of violence as they battle the army and each other, and has caused an expansion of organized crime as new gangs invade new territories.

“Violence has increased systematically in the last 3½ years,” Mr. Gutierrez said. “Violence trends announce more and more violence in the near future. Government authorities conceive violence as an unavoidable consequence of the strategy and do not consider it as an indicator of failure.”Dec. 31, 2010