Immigration Reality: Don't Jump to Conclusions About the Census

A look at the initial census data from the Brookings Institute

Don't Jump to Conclusions About the Census - Brookings Institution: "If we regard simple population change as an indicator of political power, the buildup in red states is indeed significant. However, early next year, the Census Bureau will release counts of the population by race and ethnicity. That number will show shifts of the population that official estimates have pointed to all along: The diversifying of the population is more extensive in areas of fast population growth.

Many of the states that have gained in their head count have gained non-white minorities, especially Hispanics. Estimates already show that four states that gained seats -- Texas, Florida, Arizona and Georgia -- are highly ranked in the Top 10 states for growth in the Hispanic population during this decade.

Moreover, more than half the population growth in those states alone came from increases in the Latino population. These additions were a result of net immigration and births in those states. While the large increase in Hispanics in these high-growth states includes some immigrant newcomers ineligible to vote, eligible Latinos tend to vote Democratic in most of the states that gained seats. That may change by 2012, but much will happen between now and then.

Putting this into further perspective, the U.S. population grew by 9.7% between 2000 and 2010, slower than any decade since the Great Depression in the 1930s. With the Great Recession taking hold at the end of the 2000s, slowing immigration and birth rates, it is possible that slower growth will continue, at least for the short term. Thus, the sizeable increase in minority populations comes at a time when the overall population is growing more slowly.

Thus the sweeping demographic changes going on in our nation are much more significant than just shifts in where people live. We are becoming more diverse, and, as many analysts have noted, we will be a white-minority nation in about 30 years. So simply looking at geography may not yield correct results when we're talking about how new populations may behave and particularly how they may vote.

We're in for a much more interesting and challenging time than many people may believe." Dec. 21, 2010