Whack-a-mole: No easy options in Mexico's drug war

From Stratford - a private security analysis firm that is getting a lot of press for its analyses of the Mexican drug war - an interesting, and detailed, analysis of the possible motivations and possibly complicated consequences of the Mexican Congress' recent passing of a law on terrorist acts that could apply to the drug cartels. We would call it a "whack-a-mole harder" law. 


The article also provides a clear analysis of the motivations of the cartels to "do business," and to therefore seek, through corruption, to maintain the support of politicians, police, judges and business people and the general public.

No easy options in Mexico's drug war | STRATFOR | Commentary | Business Spectator: "Mexican lawmakers recently approved reforms to the federal penal code to punish terrorist acts. Significantly, the legislators acknowledged that the definition of terrorism was written in such a way that violent and extortionist acts of cartels could be classified as terrorism.

Fundamental differences between organised criminal and terrorist groups exist, but politically characterising certain cartel acts as terrorism could develop into a more subtle attempt by the Mexican government to dilute public tolerance for cartel activity. If implemented against cartel members, the law could also carry significant implications for US involvement in the drug war. ....

... The unsavoury terrorist label could have more impact than the classification of organised crime that many in Mexico now consider a way of life. Even then, the large number of Mexicans overwhelmed by all facets of the drug war could write off such a classification as a mere public relations move. ...

There are several fundamental differences between terrorist and organised criminal groups that dictate how each will operate when placed under certain constraints. The Mexican populace is by and large fed up with the cartel violence, but the cartels have not resorted to terrorist tactics and civilian targeting on a scale that would risk the degradation of their peripheral networks. ...

The primary objective of an organised criminal group is to utilise its core illicit business (in the case of Mexico, drug trafficking) to make money. To protect that core, some territory is unofficially brought under the group’s control and an extensive peripheral network, typically composed of policemen, bankers, politicians, businessmen and judges, is developed to provide an umbrella of protection within the licit world. In building such a network, popular support is essential. This does not always mean the population will condone an organised crime group’s activities, but the populace could be effectively intimidated — or rewarded — into tolerating its existence. Generally, the better the organised crime syndicate is able to provide public goods (be it protection, jobs or a portion of the trade revenue) the better insulated the group and its activities will be.

This is a line Stratfor expects Mexican DTOs to be mindful of, but is a situation that bears close watching as the government searches for ways to drive the cartels toward a breaking point." Dec. 31, 2010