STRATFOR: "many of (Stratfor's) contacts are saying that the Calderon administration could attempt to pull off some sort of last-minute political coup (in U.S. political parlance, an "October surprise") to boost the PAN's popularity so it can retain the presidency. The potential election ploy most often discussed is the capture of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, the leader of the Sinaloa cartel, .... The reasoning goes that if the government could catch Guzman, Calderon's (and hence the PAN's) popularity would soar.
Still, very real questions exist about whether such an operation really would give the PAN the boost it needs to retain the presidency, however.... Political considerations aside, the factors that have helped Guzman avoid capture thus far are the very same factors that inhibit the Mexican government's ability to capture him.