What If Peña Nieto Resigns? Scenarios for Government Change in Mexico

Huffington Post: Since the resignation of Pascual Ortiz Rubio in 1932, Mexico has enjoyed uninterrupted presidential continuity, a streak that is unmatched by any major political system in the Western Hemisphere (and possibly among the longest in the world). Over the course of these 82 years, no presidential term has been cut short due to death, assassination, resignation, coup d'état or any other sort political upheaval and as a result, it has become difficult to imagine an interruption to this orderly succession that most Mexicans have taken for granted. However, the outbreak of social unrest from the Ayotzinapa crisis combined with the streak of scandals that have engulfed the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieto over the past two months have perhaps made the unthinkable slightly less so. For those of us in the business of analyzing political and economic risk, the last few years have demonstrated that highly improbable events do in fact take place and therefore deserve a more nuanced look. Read more.