Laura's Blog: Panetta Declares 150,000 Deaths (give or take) in Mexico's Drug War

The Mexican daily La Jornada ran a somewhat confusing front-page article today, headlined "150,000 Deaths in Mexico for Narco-Violence: Panetta". The paper notes that the US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta made the statement at the first meeting of defense chiefs from Canada, the United States and Mexico, held in Ottawa on Mar. 27.

It goes on to quote Mexican Minister of Defense Guillermo Galvan using different figures:

Galván said the war on drugs "has cost the lives of 50,000 Mexicans" and warned that the cartels that operate in the country have links in both Canada and the United States. Likewise, he pointed out that the most recent official statistics released in January of this year in Mexico, indicate that since 2006 47,500 people have died as a result of violence stemming from drug trafficking.

Since the official number is closer to 50,000, the Americas Program decided to track down the 150,000 statement.

It seems that the Canadian press confirms that the figure 150,000 was used, with some attributing it to Panetta and CBC to Mexico's Defense Secretary Guillermo Galvan. The general consensus among press present at the Ottawa trilateral defense meeting is that Sec. Panetta said it, while citing the Mexican government as the source. The DoD has not clarified to date, although CNN is tweeting that Panetta says that's the figure the Mexican officials gave him--with no time frame attached. Mexican officials jumped in, issuing a communique saying the figure refers to all of North America, according to the La Jornada article. 

Amid the who-said-what confusion, what's interesting about this apparent lapse is:

1) It doesn't seem to make much difference to the Sec. of Defense Panetta whether the number is 50,000 or 150,000. The sloppiness about the difference of 100,000 human beings could contribute to the way in which Mexican lives seem pawns to U.S. security strategy--a perception that is widespread here and of particular concern to many Mexicans, especially on the border;

2) The emphasis on the "bloody drug war" is being used to intensify the threat perception and support the need to regional-ize the response, under U.S. direction. 

The important issue underlying the attention-grabbing headline is how the newly strengthened alliance between the three countries will relate to respond to Mexico's undeniable crisis. Mexico has historically been reticent, to say the least. about U.S. involvement in its national security. The Pentagon is aware of this political fact, prompting curious disclaimers like this one.

The Calderón administration significantly changed that situation by opening the door to a far greater degree of U.S. government and private security sector involvement in Mexico. 

The other question is whether this tripartite military alliance will attempt to consolidate  the failing  current drug war model--focused on interdiction and enforcement and heavily promoted by the U.S. government and the outgoing Calderón administration. If so, it will be working against the will of a growing number of Mexicans (and some U.S. citizen groups) who want to see some major changes to stop the bloodshed.  

Watch for more fallout from this trilateral defense meeting in the weeks between now and the North American Leaders Summit on April 2. The vague announcement of a mechanism for closer alliance probably refers to the U.S. Northern Command, but it's unclear. NorthCom posted the joint statement from the March 27 trilateral defense meeting. Here are the conclusions:

Our meeting today has established the framework necessary to build North America's resilience by pursuing a practical agenda built on sustained trilateral cooperation on issues related to defence. We intend to:

- Develop a joint trilateral defence threat assessment for North America to deepen our common understanding of the threats and challenges we face.

- Explore ways to improve our support to the efforts of civilian public security agencies in countering illicit activities in our respective countries and the hemisphere, such as narcotics trafficking.

- Explore how we can collaborate to increase the speed and efficiency with which our armed forces support civilian-led responses to disasters.

- Continue to work together to strengthen hemispheric defence forums.

The last point is especially vague. In the interests of informing the public in all three countries about issues that closely affect their taxpayer dollars, their sovereignty and their safety, we'd like to know more about the mechanisms and proposed forums for regional security cooperation--if anyone out there has additional information, please send to info@cipamericas.org or post here.

Drug War: Head of Northern Command says it is too early to tell if drug war in Mexico is being won.

La Jornada: "The head of U.S. Northern Command said today it is "too early to estimate whether the drug war in Mexico is being won or lost," despite "the brave decision" to put the military in the streets.

Gen. Charles Jacoby, head of Northern Command (Northcom), responsible for U.S. military affairs in North America (U.S., Canada and Mexico), appeared today (Tuesday) before the Armed Services Committee of the Senate and was asked to assess the security situation in Mexico.

He said, "the violence increased again in 2011. It began to decline at the end of the year, but I don't think there is any conclusions that might be drawn from that. Therefore, Mexicans are struggling hard with a brutal and adaptable enemy, and in my opinion, they have not faltered. They are taking the fight to transnational criminal organizations, but there is still much work to do, and we look forward to continuing to provide the support they request in that fight."

Senator John McCain had asked the general--given that almost 50 thousand Mexican citizens have been killed since 2006, almost 13,000 in 2011, and the U.S. government has issued warnings to travelers regarding areas in northern Mexico--if this "indicates that we are winning or losing, or it is a stalemate."

Jacoby, pressed to give an assessment of whether the Mexican government's efforts on this area are a success or failure, said "the violence has grown. It was not a huge leap this year, but those numbers are unacceptable, adding that the travel warnings, like the one issued to Nuevo Laredo, are indicative of the safety issue along the border.

At the same time, he felt that the strategy of decapitation of the cartels has been "successful", given that 22 of the 37 most wanted drug traffickers have been "removed from the board." However, he said, "this has not had a significant, positive effect. So I agree that there are other things that need to be done. The Mexican military is working on trying to establish security, to reduce violence in communities, especially in the northeast, and I think that is the right strategy to follow."

Asked about his assessment of the security situation on the border with Mexico, the General, a veteran of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, said that everything bad that is attributed to transnational criminal organizations is evident on the border. "We know from our experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq on the border, weak institutions are exploited by malicious, illegal activity and this, the heart and soul, the economic engine of transnational criminal organizations, is expressed at the border ... smuggling of weapons, cash and drugs. "

The general told the audience that "we are constantly improving our security cooperation with our good friends in Mexico ... a step determined by mutual agreement and consistent respect for national sovereignty."

At the same hearing, General Douglas Fraser, head of Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), responsible for military relations and security issues in Central and South America and the Caribbean, also appeared.

Asked about the recent declaration of the second state of military siege by the authorities in Guatemala--arising from the growing violence from Mexican drug cartels operating in that country, General Fraser said: "By Mexico increasing the pressure, we see that the networks, particularly the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel, are moving into Central America. Guatemala is obviously the first place, but we see their footprints all over Central America.."" read more

U.S.-Mexico Relations: US and Mexico plan to start joint military exercises

CNN Mexico: "The United States plans to increase military cooperation with Mexico. The U.S. Northern Command (Northcom) today reported to Congress that the country is planning a joint simulation exercise in May.

Commander Charles Jacoby said the military relationship between the U.S. and Mexico has advanced to "unprecedented levels of coordination" and the two countries have become "strategic partners" with full respect for the sovereignty of each. "We are ready to increase collaboration and coordination in Mexico to the degree they desire and in accordance with the policies of the U.S. government," he said in written testimony before the Armed Services Committee of the House of Representatives.

The exercise, called Arden Sentry 12, to be held on May 2, will be the first of its kind undertaken by Northcom and the Mexican military as a combined action to support civil authorities in the event of natural disasters. The exercise scenario will simulate a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that will land near Brownsville, Texas, will return to the sea and re-enter by the north coast of Texas. This includes mock serious damage to infrastructure.

In his testimony, Jacoby highlighted that the Northcom has--for several years--housed members of the Mexican Navy, Defense and Air Force Secretariats and stressed that this has helped "tremendously improve cooperation."

Jacoby said that while Mexico shares information regarding the struggle against transnational criminal organizations, the United States brings its experience in asymmetric conflicts, land warfare and challenges to the rule of law. The commander also pointed out the cooperation with Mexico in terms of planning, tactical skills, communications and incorporating human rights principles, as well as holding regular meetings to build relationships.

As an example, General Jacoby mentioned  planning exercises such as "Quickdraw" between naval forces of the United States, Canada and Mexico to improve the capacity to respond to illegal activities that threaten the security of North America." Spanish original

Mexico Drug War: U.S. advisory personnel behind the scenes in Mexico

From InSight Crime, a partial recap of publicly acknowledged U.S. advisory personnel behind the scenes in Mexico:

*More than 50 U.S. State Department personnel are reportedly facilitating the Merida Initiative inside Mexico. This is said to be more than double the old number of liaisons when U.S. assistance to Mexico's anti-trafficking effort was down around the $40-million-a-year level.

*Since July 20, 2009, hundreds of U.S. law enforcement officers have cycled through Mexico, teaching Mexican police in three-week shifts at a training center 450 miles south of the border.

*U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) personnel are in Mexico to help vet new military and federal police candidates and instruct Mexican Army special forces.

*NORTHCOM has reported steady sending of counter-insurgency training teams into Mexico, an average of 20 teams a year with 4 to 5 soldiers each, on short missions involving no field operations.

*U.S. military commanders are said to meet twice yearly with Mexican Army area commanders.

*In three Mexican states, elite anti-kidnap squads are trained by U.S. officers—and also by police specialists from Colombia.

*A stream of bi-national working groups moves through both countries.

*Allegations in the Mexican press that the U.S. had placed a special permanent intelligence official in Ciudad Juarez actually referred to an envisioned proposal, not an established fact.

*The U.S. has 12 consulates in Mexico, plus its massive main embassy in Mexico City, a block-wide fortress that is the largest U.S. embassy in Latin America. Three people connected to the U.S. Consulate in Juarez were murdered March 13, 2010, and a 500-person investigation effort then convened on the U.S. side of the border. When two ICE agents were attacked in northeast Mexico on February 15, 2011 (agent Jaime Zapata was killed; agent Victor Avila badly wounded), they were reportedly bringing security equipment to a consulate. U.S. reprisal for this attack came in the form of Operation Bombardier, working on U.S. soil against operatives of the attacking cartel, the Zetas, and bringing 676 arrests.

*An inanimate U.S. presence is also notable. In March 2011 it was acknowledged that for two years, at the request of the Mexican government, unmanned U.S. spy drones had been flying over Mexico, helping to track cartel gunmen.