Whack-a-mole drug war: Projecting the future of the Mexican drug war

Projecting the future of the Mexican drug war: "Opinion polls for the 2012 presidential election show Enrique Pena Nieto, the current governor of the State of Mexico, and the PRI candidate, with a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor.

According to The Economist, the PRI’s implicit position is that it would never have allowed the drug violence to get out of hand. Nieto has avoided comment on whether or not he would withdraw army forces from some cities. It is likely that a PRI victory would mean, at the least, a de-escalated and lower profile cartel strategy, with fewer casualties.

If the PAN prevails it is likely that Calderon’s strategies will continue. ...

In this scenario, just as occurred in Colombia, the organized aspect of Mexican drug trafficking will disappear and the drug cartels will be transformed and staffed with new and old players who operate opportunistically, and more independently, to fill the demand for illicit drugs. The violence will never completely disappear. Prohibition creates black markets, and the criminal groups that form to manage them will always use violence to defend them.

Without the elimination of demand for illegal drugs from the Unites States and Europe, the fragmented Mexican drug trafficking organizations would continue to operate in a different form, just as the major Colombian cartels of the late 20th century were replaced by unorganized, amorphous players drawn from the ranks of paramilitaries, street criminals, and existing black market players.

There is much at stake for the cartels and the Mexican government, and, with both sides displaying a high level of commitment, there will be continued bloodshed."