Oct 24, 2011

Drug War Bloodshed: Release of Mexico Government Info Reveals "Cockroach Effect"

InSight Crime: "Mexico’s federal government has published its statistics regarding homicides in 2011, allowing for a glimpse at the changing state of public security within the nation...

... one of the states with the sharpest spikes in murders was Guerrero (and) leading the trend in Guerrero is Acapulco. ... Another region where the violence has spiked is Nuevo Leon. ... The current violence is largely centered around the Monterrey metro area.

... But while the news is bad in the regions mentioned above, other areas have experienced a significant lessening of violence. The foremost is Juarez, the border city in Chihuahua, which has for the last several years enjoyed the dubious designation of Mexico’s most dangerous city.

... Taken together, the picture is one of a nation growing slightly more violent, with the violence growing significantly more dispersed. ... This dynamic has long been predicted by the so-called cockroach effect, which holds that the government cracking down in one region will, at best, lead to the criminal actors scurrying to other locales. ... which means that nationwide impact of flooding a specific area with law enforcement could be negative, even with a positive local impact. read more

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